While Wii U has struggled outside Japan, monthly sales have improved toward the end of 2013, to the tune of 200% (bundle price drop) and 340% (holidays), but still can't steady adequately.
I'm not too worried about Super Mario 3D World. It and upcoming Nintendo-system titles like Mario Kart 8 and Metroid for Wii U will produce at minimum some degree of success through name recognition. While they will likely remain consistent, they cannot carry the full weight of the console.
Big name third-party titles must hold their own. That initially will not happen when the same games are made at higher production standards for Microsoft and Sony's systems. Enter the GamePad; it is the Wii U's defining feature, yet largely goes unused. In my opinion, the tablet-style peripheral could have been made lighter, the display bigger, button placement more apt, while the touch-enabled display is not very important (then again, GamePadPaint). There are some plans for a redesigned Wii U, so those items are probably due to be amended, however that won't change the effect of the base product. As said above, major franchise games e.g. Mass Effect, Call of Duty, Arkham have to be good. While graphically lesser on Wii U, they can make up for it by having gameplay become a good fit on the GamePad which would put the game experience fully in your hands. If it only serves as an auxillary, the idea of constantly switching attention from television to controller proves not ideal.
On a separate note, more titles in the RPG department seems to potentially be part of that recipe for success.
Iwata is past the stage of having exclusives in general be the key. While any relatively successful titles will be marketed strongly, the focus is heavily on the flagship ones. This always holds true, but with the situation as it is now, they are becoming a crutch. Nintendo's 1b plan is about software specialised for the GamePad, and that is hit or miss. Marginal ideas such as e-payments and figurines will have no hand whatsoever in saving the Wii U.
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